Introduction

In recent years, Kenya has emerged as a focal point for global attention, not only for its economic potential but also for the dynamic interplay between its government policies and public sentiment. The saga surrounding the Finance Bill 2024 serves as a vivid example of how fiscal decisions can ignite widespread civic unrest and reshape national discourse. Introduced as a measure to address Kenyas burgeoning debt and fiscal deficits, the bill proposed significant tax hikes on essential goods and services, triggering vehement opposition from citizens already grappling with economic hardships.

The ensuing protests, marked by widespread mobilisation facilitated by both traditional and digital platforms, showcased the power of collective action in holding governments accountable. Kenyan youths, disillusioned by what they perceived as a disregard for their socio-economic welfare, took to the streets in unprecedented numbers. Their demands for equitable taxation policies and transparent governance resonated across the nation, culminating in the governments decision to withdraw the controversial bill.

This episode not only underscored the significance of public engagement in shaping policy outcomes but also highlighted broader systemic challenges facing African nations. Issues of corruption, economic inequality, and governance deficits continue to undermine development efforts across the continent, often exacerbating social tensions and eroding public trust in institutions. Kenyas experience thus offers pertinent lessons for other African countries navigating similar fiscal landscapes, emphasizing the importance of inclusive governance, transparent policymaking, and responsive leadership.

As Nigeria and other African nations confront their own economic and governance challenges, the lessons from Kenyas Finance Bill 2024 saga are timely and instructive. They underscore the imperative of balancing revenue generation with socio-economic equity, fostering transparent dialogue between governments and citizens, and ensuring that fiscal policies promote inclusive growth and sustainable development. By learning from Kenyas experience, African nations can forge a path toward resilient economies and inclusive societies, where fiscal decisions align with the aspirations and well-being of all citizens.

The Situational Quadruple Nexus (SQN) Framework can be used to understand the threats to National Security and Public Order in Kenya

A holistic understanding of national security, economic development, hence the domain of economic and development policy formulation must capture the full spectrum of human security, and the nexus between human security and development. The question of economic development and public order in Kenya, cannot be addressed outside the realities of the prevailing governance. Governance in this respect focuses on leadership deficit and unconscionable corruption in the main.

To better appreciate the issues affecting economic development, public order and national security in Kenya, and how to address them, the SQN Analysis or Framework, that looks at the inter-linkages between the critical pillars of Peace/Security, Human rights, humanitarianism, and Development, as operating under the overarching foundations of governance/leadership, institutions, resources and external dynamics, is very key^[1].  These four critical pillars are hinged on the foundations of governance (leadership plus corruption), the crucial role of external dynamics, institutions, as well as human/material resources.

The realization of utmost freedom, which is the freedom from fear and poverty and the realization of basic human needs, and widespread improved quality of life[2], cannot be achieved by the Tax them to Death approach that many African leaders led by external pressures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), are doing. At least we can clearly see this in the ongoing experience of President Ruto with Kenyans.

The place of governance in this framework, points us to issues of leadership deficit and corruption. Leadership deficit addresses the paucity of visionary leaders at many of societal points for organizing efficient coordination of interests in a polity. The inability to curb the problem of corruption is symptomatic of the failure of visionary leadership with appropriate measures for the solution of this major governance problem. Tackling corruption is to solve the problem of rule of law. Corruption has an inverse relationship with the rule of law. Corruption within government institutions and inefficiencies in the criminal justice system undermine efforts in governance including the formation of development policies. African bad leaders see their personal interests as identical to those of the strong world leaders bent on having Africa, (in spite of its resources), at the bottom of global affairs. Having stolen so much money kept in secret safe havens and with such secrets in the hands of the intelligence networks of powerful countries, they are unable to stand up for Africa.

External dynamics speaks to the totality of influences positive and negative that affect policy choices, especially from the point of the relationships between Kenya and other international interests that could potentially be beneficial and/or destructive.

Institutions are very critical in holding the fabric of any state. Institutions handle the aggregation and articulation of interests in society. Institutions go beyond pressure groups and parties in the political arena and include others like civil society organisations (CSOs), religious/faith-based entities, traditional and primordial institutions, the media, etc.

Good governance is not enough to sustain political institutions, and this explains the need to continue to crave for credible political institutions. Undoubtedly, experiences across the globe have shown that strong political institutions help in recruiting and shaping leadership.

Resources are always crucial. Availability of human and material resources is important for any effort aimed at promoting national security and public order. Good governance can bring some progress, but success is easier if the human and material resources are available for the necessary leadership efforts to have a coherent and coordinated quadruple nexus response. It is abundantly clear that the push on quadruple nexus will not succeed without factoring in and ameliorating the situational foundation on which the quadruple nexus rests.

Framework of the SQN

Source: Badejo, B. (2022, December 22). Approach to Sustainable Development: Understanding the Quadruple Nexus. Retrieved from Kujenga Amani: https://kujenga-amani.ssrc.org/2022/12/22/an-approach-to-sustainable-development-understanding-the-quadruple-nexus/

Some Backdrop of History on Protests in Kenya

Since June 18, 2024, Kenyans, majorly the youths, Gen-Zs inclusive embarked on mass protests in all major cities in Kenya. Rallies were held in: Kisumu, Nyeri, Nakuru, Eldoret, (Rutos home base), Kilifi, Mombasa. The protesting youths occupied the hallowed grounds of the Kenyan Parliament and drove Parliamentarians into the bushes as the youths enjoyed the sumptuous meals prepared for the Parliamentarians. Public order was practically suspended as Kenyans in their numbers held down the country. This continued until weeks later, specifically after the July 5, 2024 Presidential Statement that took on board some of the demands of the protesters.

Mass protests are generally not new to Kenya. The pre-independence period and after the Second World War witnessed a number of movements seeking an end to British colonization especially with its effect on land. Popular in this respect was the Mau Mau revolt which arguably midwifed the Republic of Kenya.[3]

To grasp the causative dimension of the protests that shook Kenya to its very roots in the middle of year 2024, it is critical to understand the import of leadership deficit and corruption in the inability to realise good governance in Kenya, nay, much of Africa.[4] Public governance is a key factor that influences the development path of countries the world all over. Historically, the negative impact of corruption on governance is so profound.  Expectedly, most conversations around governance, especially good governance, are almost always inextricably linked to the fight against corruption. Thus, the term good governance is often intertwined with the anti-corruption agenda, and bad governance is commonly associated with corruption^[5]

Tackling corruption is to address another important factor: the enthronement of the rule of law which itself is inversely related to corruption. The more of one, the less of the other.[6]

Strident struggles for change did not end in Kenya after independence. Kenyans have a history of civil unrest, driven by political, social, and economic factors. It is appearing there is a pattern of watering the soil of democracy with the blood of the people of Kenya. Badejo, (2006), provides a good account on the heroes of the movements for what is normally termed as Kenyas Second Liberation or multi-party change, including the coup attempt of 1982 and its aftermath till the reinstitution of multi-party politics in the early 1990s[7].

Election outcomes tend to be accompanied by the expressions of voter dissatisfaction, subsequent to the announcement of election results. The unparalleled example of this was the general elections of 2007. The then incumbent President Mwai Kibaki was sworn into office in the middle of the night in order to present a fait accompli as the opposition, led by Raila Odinga claimed the Orange Democratic Movement, had been cheated of its victory at the polls.[8]

Widespread violence erupted, resulting in over 1,200 deaths and the displacement of around 600,000 people. Ethnic tensions, particularly between the Kikuyu (supporters of Kibaki), including Uhuru Kenyatta, the Luo (supporters of Odinga), and the Kalenjin (supporters of former President Moi whose mantle had started falling on Young Turk William Ruto), were exacerbated. A power-sharing agreement was brokered in February 2008 by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, leading to the formation of a coalition government with Kibaki as president and Odinga as prime minister.[9] William Ruto became the Minister of Agriculture, an office in which he was popularly accused of corruption over the sales of maize. He was suspended by Raila Odinga, but immediately reinstated by Kibaki. Subsequent to that, he was again suspended as per the constitution as three constitutional court judges concluded he must stand trial on the allegation that he defrauded a state corporation of $1.2m over the sale of forest land[10]. Ruto won the cases but the developments marked the beginning of the clear schism between Odinga and Ruto.

Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, and others were subsequently indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on account of having incited ethnic violence etc. They were tried and acquitted but not discharged as witnesses had either died or changed their stories leading Ms. Fatou Bensouda, the Prosecutor at the ICC to agree to not proceeding with the cases.[11]

The 2017 presidential election saw incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta declared the winner over Raila Odinga. Odingas supporters claimed the election was rigged. Protests and violence erupted, particularly in opposition strongholds. The Supreme Court annulled the election results, citing irregularities, and ordered a re-run. Kenyatta, with Ruto as his Deputy, won the re-run in October 2017, which poll Odinga boycotted, stating that the necessary changes required from the Supreme Courts annulment had not been carried out. Further tensions continued. However, in March 2018, Kenyatta and Odinga publicly reconciled in an event known as the Handshake.

Kenya as a Democracy

Unlike many an African country, Kenya, beyond the 1982 coup attempt, has never had military rule. This reality make Kenyan leaders claim the status of being a democracy with the modifications of the inherited British parliamentary system overtime. The competitive party system yielded to a de facto one-party state under President Jomo Kenyatta, and subsequently a de jure one for about a decade under President Moi[12]. However, it is important to emphasise that elections and civil rule are not tantamount to a polity being democratic.[13]

In this respect, a democracy is a political space organized in such a way that the drive towards the realisation of utmost freedom is uppermost. A government of the people, by the people, and for the people is the hallmark of a democratic state. This means those who are governing the people are coming out of the people, (in this instance ruling out external and oligarchic control in the production of leaders), by the people, (implying that the people themselves are able to express their respective desires by way of participation with elections being just an aspect), and for the people, having to do with policies being driven in the best interests of the majority of the people Performance by those in office in enriching the lives of the large majority of the people being the purpose of democracy.[14] This conception of democracy while accepting the importance of elections for leadership recruitment avoids being fixated on this fraction of a third of what should be the focus in assessing democracy. As Badejo (2022) argues:

The conception of democracy herein, is superior to the current fixations on democracy as periodic elections irrespective of performance failures on accountabilities on many other freedoms that are crucial for the good life. The performance of elected office-holders on all crucial freedoms is very important. Whether elected leaders fail on other important freedoms beyond the freedom to vote should be of concern. Democracy could be a preferred structural arrangement for striving towards utmost freedom.[15]

Rutos Political Strategy to Office

The 2022 General Elections that saw William Ruto clinch victory was not without controversy, including allegations of external interference and technological manipulations. Kenyas August 2022 elections recorded the lowest voter turnout in 15 years. While the 2017 general election recorded a voter turnout of 79.51 per cent, only 65.4 per cent of the 22.12 million registered voters cast their ballots. 39.84 per cent (8.8 million) of the total registered voters were youth, a decline of 5.17 per cent from the 2017 figures. This low voter turnout strongly indicated voter apathy, particularly among youth.[16]

The 2022 election, like others before, was vulnerable to the weaponisation of social media and the internet by the political class and their supporters. While the internets wide reach and the ubiquity of social media provided unparalleled opportunities to engage with and empower voters, they also facilitated the spread of dis- and misinformation, hate speech (specially targeted at female political aspirants), undermined trust in democratic institutions, and sowed societal distrust.

Prof. Maka Makau considered formal equality and abstract autonomy as the two tenets of democratic experiment. For him, it is important for institutions of governance to empower people to create substance. He was worried about the authoritarian tendencies of leadership in Africa. Makaus analysis was not without sufficient reference to the 9 August, 2022, presidential elections in Kenya, which he adjudged to have been marred by electoral malpractices and rigging ultimately culminating in the theft of the peoples real mandate and choice. While calling on Nigeria to learn from the example of Kenya, he also reiterated the need to be very careful and weary of the interference of external interests and actors in the electoral process in Africa.[17]

Deputy President William Rutos victorious presidential campaign in Kenyas 2022 elections saw him champion the plight of the hustlers, young informal economy workers on low, piecemeal incomes.[18] Reconfiguring political identities around notions of economic hardship and struggle, Rutos campaign appeared emblematic of what scholars have recently identified as a turn towards populism in Africa, transmuting ethno-nationalist identities into class-based ones.[19] However, whilst Rutos campaign capitalized on rising prices to devastating political effect, he also channeled discontent with the Jubilee government and its unmet promises of shared prosperity. Drawing on ethnographic data collected in central Kenyas Kiambu region since 2017. Thus, an explanation of Rutos victory is a combination of hustler populism and an anti-Jubilee backlash. Rutos campaign took advantage of Uhuru Kenyattas personal unpopularity as voters increasingly questioned the nature of dynastic authority and state capture, seeking to punish Uhuru personally for his failures to create prosperity in the region whilst enriching himself at their expense.[20]

Violent protests were minimal with respect to the 2022 elections. Though a lot of trust was lost by about a half of the population, the Azimio opposition led by Raila Odinga had no other choice than to accept the Supreme Court of Kenyas unanimous decision that declared William Ruto as the winner of the presidential election.[21] The opposition, nonetheless, continued to hold rallies of displeasure with government policies and actions until Ruto succeeded in sending Raila Odinga on leave from politics in Kenya by backing him for the chairmanship of the African Union contest. Contests for such posts, definitely require the necessary heavy state support from the government of each candidate.

Ruto in the Presidential Seat

Ruto earned for himself the campaign reputation of moniker hustler for leading a narrative of a bottom-up economic model which he went to great lengths to explain, was about putting more cash into the pockets of the poor. But barely two months after he was sworn in, Ruto seems to be doing the exact opposite of what he pledged, emptying the already shallow pockets of poor Kenyans.[22]

As soon as he got into office Ruto embarked on external ventures aimed at positioning himself as the premier African leader. Within the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Ruto positioned himself as the one in position to resolve the war in Sudan. But the reality Kenyans are dealing with, is that most of the welcoming policies of President Ruto, turns out to be more hurtful to the people.

Rutos State Visit to the US

President William Ruto arrived in Washington, DC, United States of America, on May 23,^, 2024, on a state visit on the invitation of President Joe Biden who had only hosted five state visits prior to that of Ruto during his four year stay in the White House. A state visit is a big deal in American diplomacy. It depicts warm relations and another way of seeking the fulfilment of American goals when force is not being used. Earlier at a mega crusade by American televangelist Benny Hinn in Nairobi on February 24-25, 2024, Ruto had boasted about his special invitation to the White House by an African leader in 16 years.[23]

Kenya has clearly emerged as Americas leading strategic partner if not in Africa as a whole, then at least in sub-Saharan Africa. At a time when Africa and other parts of the world are polarising, with Russia-leaning juntas evicting Western militaries from Sahel states and South Africa and others tilting towards Russia and China, Kenya is becoming increasingly significant.

In geopolitical terms, the most important outcome of the visit was that Biden designated Kenya as a Major Non-NATO Ally the only one in sub-Saharan Africa. This status doesnt include the mutual defence obligations of NATO membership but provides countries with preferential access to US military training, surplus equipment, joint research, etc. The designation confirmed Kenya as one of the US most important strategic military partners.

For Ruto, the US visit was also critical, probably more economically than geopolitically. Kenya is struggling with debt and balance of payments problems, and needs US help with debt relief.

Rutos Washington excursion was not unanimously popular back home, perhaps not surprisingly, since hes a politically divisive figure in Kenya, as one anonymous observer says. His supporters are delighted at the prestige his visit brought Kenya, and the promise of greater US investment and debt relief. His critics argue that hes overpromising again, and while preaching about austerity, he hired an expensive private jet from Dubai to take him to the US, this observer says.[24]

According to Institute for Security Studies Senior Researcher in Nairobi, Willis Okumu, The visit could be seen as a win for Ruto, but is it for Kenyans? Okumu suggests the likelihood that Ruto is being used to spearhead a neo-colonialist agenda, given the recent changes in Africa where heads of state including Museveni have rebuffed Western-backed policies. Expatiating further, Okumu argued that: Ruto is desperate for the Western embrace, for political and economic reasons, while America, is after geopolitical influence given the economic inroads of to China on the continent as well as Russian geopolitical build up in Africa.

Where does this leave the people of Kenya in the equation? It is important to point out that foreign relations are not necessarily a zero-sum game. But, as Okumu cautions, the evolving relationship should be closely monitored to clearly distinguish between Rutos and Kenyas interests.[25]

African Leaders need to be truly committed to managing the realities of external dynamics beyond mere rhetoric

President Ruto, even before his Washington, DC, state visit had been strongly rallying other African leaders on measures that could benefit people. He has had a number of appearances that could be considered as anti-Bretton Woods Institutions, impacts on the lives of Africans.

In fact, the Kenyan President William Ruto matched his position with a deliberate, observed wardrobe change at some point. He adopted the late Kaunda suit, which was in vogue in the 1960s and 70s. His admirers loved it.

By adopting this colonial vintage Safari suit as an ideological statement, Dr. Ruto was sending a message: He wanted to appear different on the local and global stage. This period saw some Pan-Africa, fire-brand radicalism on the g